There is a good deal of money to be won this week on DraftKings including a top prize of $30k in the main tournament. I will be going heavier than normal this week chasing the significant GPP prizes, and that I will play less money games than normal. This is the first time we have seen a $30k top prize, therefore I think it’s worth chasing in the event that you’ve got the bankroll to get it.
We did lose the co-main occasion with Max Holloway pulling from this struggle against Brian Ortega, so we are now down to 11 fights and we ought to see a great deal of ties on this card with the popular lineups. If you’re chasing that $30K then you’ll want to attempt to be a bit different with your lineup so you can separate yourself from the remainder of the area. That said, let’s get into a few plays I like as well as my fade of the week.
Cash Game play of the week — Paul Felder ($7,400)
The DK pricing on this fight is far off from the betting line. On DK, Felder is 1,400 less than his opponent, Mike Perry. On the betting line, Felder is the -150 favorite. That’s just too much line worth to pass on in money games and that makes Felder the”free square” this week. Even when he loses this fight, he must be highly owned that it will not even damage your lineup in money games. In GPP’s, Felder will be one of the greatest owned fighters on the card and when he loses there then it may kill your lineup, so maybe consider avoiding the chalk there in the event that you can. However, with this crazy line value we are getting here, Paul Felder is the easy pick for the money game play of this week.
GPP drama of this week — Mike Perry ($8,800)
Ok, I know this sounds a little weird because I literally just picked Paul Felder because my money play of this week, but hear me out. In cash games, we don’t care about ownership. In case Felder is 90% owned in money games, then it doesn’t damage your lineup since only 10% of lineups did not possess him and you merely have to be top ~50 percent of the field to money in money games. In GPPs, I’m imagining Felder will be over 50% owned. If he loses, that’s half of the area that’s dead without a chance at winning 1st place.
Mike Perry on the other hand will probably be less than 20% owned, and closer to 10% simply due to this mispriced line. If Felder loses and kills off 50 percent of lineups, then you get a win with the low owned guy to set you in a much better location of a Royal 1st place win and possibly hitting $30k. Perry has the power to KO anyone and Paul Felder is taking this fight on short notice in a weight class above his branch. Would it shock you much if Perry could KO him in this fight? In GPPs, we are looking for that boom or bust drama and that is Mike Perry this week making him my GPP drama of this week.
Underdog drama of the week — Anthony Pettis ($7,600)
Anthony Pettis would have been a -500 favorite over Michael Chiesa if this fight took place 5 years before, but now we get a fading Pettis as an underdog and $1,000 less costly than Chiesa on DraftKings. I think Pettis can keep this battle standing for most the struggle which should give him a big edge. He’s also dangerous on the floor himself and if he is taken down I believe he will be able to get up if he is not able to get a submission of his very own. If Pettis can win a determination then I presume he will pay his off DK cost and will be a fantastic underdog to use so it is possible to conserve salary on your lineups. I can even see this fight ending from Pettis falling Chiesa with a human body kick and if this happens he will likely be on the winning lineup if he could make it happen in around 1.
Fade of the week — Rafael Assuncao ($9,100)
At $9.1k, I have zero interest in Assuncao this weekend. I do think he wins the struggle, but I don’t see him paying that high price tag. He does not fight at a heavy pace and he has not gotten a takedown in his last 4 wins as well as the ground is where he will have his biggest advantage in this matchup. In those last 4 wins, Assuncao hasn’t scored over 78 DK points and in his wages this week I need at least 91 points from him to pay that much. I would rather pay up for the guys higher priced compared to Assuncao, or even go down to Vannata or Miocic. I will have 20 lineups this weekend and Assuncao will probably be in 0 of these, making him my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight about the card and give my complete DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
http://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks
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