This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight PPV card in Australia. DraftKings altered up their contests a bit and I like the new choice of contests and prizes. The main GPP is now a $10 buy and $30k goes to 1st location. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first location price and $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 entries that match. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers therefore be cautious chasing those too hard. I’ll likely stick to the top GPP this week and throw 100 or so entries at that $30k prize. I’ll also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a good amount of play into money games.
Money Game play of this week — Shane Young ($9,100)
I’m really not loving this slate for money games, and I was just going to decide on the main event stack for my cash game play of the week. However, I will see the major event just scoring ~100 total points and when I am stacking I need a floor of 100 with upside of 160 or so. I’ve changed my stance on the stack and I believe Shane Young creates a fantastic money game play. I really don’t know how large of a ceiling he’s because I do think this fight goes all 3 rounds, but I do feel confident in him winning and even more confident in him not getting finished. I think he’s a high floor because this battle should go all 3 rounds, but I presume he’s the better fighter everywhere and that I see him winning this battle with a mixture of wrestling and striking. I do think he has 100-point upside into a decision, and I think he could complete this battle. However, I feel like he is a secure play for 80+ and that is why he’s my money game play of this week rather than my GPP play. GPP drama of this week — Kyung Ho Kang ($9,400)
I think the only way Kang loses this battle is by becoming KO’d. He should be the much superior fighter around the mat, and I believe he can hang the feet as well. I expect him to look for takedowns early and often, and Ishihara does not have any ground game to compete with him off his back. Since Ishihara does possess heavy power in his hands I believe Kang has a floor of 0 points, but that is exactly why he is my GPP drama of the week rather than my money game play of the week. In cash, I want to lock in high flooring and that is not what we’ve got here. I like this for GPPs because if he loses $9.4k it will not matter how many things he has, we wouldn’t be cashing. In cash games, we could still come away with a gain if he dropped a decision at that price and scored 30-40 points, we’d simply need to hit on our other areas. We don’t need 6 wins in money, but we do for GPP. Thus, we can take the opportunity on a 0 because he has 100+ upside since he is going to be the fighter wanting to grapple and that I could see him getting multiple takedowns in addition to a submission. I think he gets a 1st or 2nd round entry and I do not expect for him to stand too long using Ishihara. I think Kang can outscore Adesanya in this area and I like him as a pivot away from a big name who might be more popular.
Underdog play of the week — Kelvin Gastelum ($7,300)
I am actually choosing Whittaker to win this particular fight, but I also don’t really like many/any underdogs on this card. I expect this struggle to stay standing for as long as it lasts. Personally, I see this going the distance and Whittaker winning a unanimous choice. If that’s true, then I believe Gastelum has the highest floor of the underdogs since he’ll have 5 rounds to work with and he’ll land a reasonable number of shots. In addition, I think if Whittaker wins a 25-minute decision he probably just scores 85-95 DK points. At his $8.9k salary, that might not put him on the $30k lineup. If Kelvin wins, if it be by KO or decision, he’ll almost surely be on that $30k lineup in his $7.3additional salary. That is why he’s my underdog drama of the week.
Fade of this week — Sam Alvey ($7,900)
I have to stay on brand with this one and pick Sam Alvey as my fade of the week. I’ve picked him as my fade each time he’s fought so that I am going to roll with it . The design Alvey brings to the table is simply not beneficial for DraftKings. The only real way Alvey could score highly is by obtaining a win. He does not strike at a high enough speed to score highly at a decision and he won’t be going for any takedowns. Even if he receives a conclusion win here he can score 50-60 DK points and that might not be enough to acquire a GPP, even with him being the underdog. I want at least 10x out of a fighter when I roster them and with his $7.9k price label, that means I need at least 79 DK points. I don’t see that happening and that’s the reason he is my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle about the card and provide my complete DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my pick predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link too. I am 54-34 to get +177.13un (+$17,713) since May 19th on Premium Plays)

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